張競
張競接受俄羅斯《衛星網》(Sputnik International)訪問，分析評論共軍發言人針對美國參議員Rick Scott來訪，表述共軍在臺海周邊進行軍事演訓，所顯示之意涵。
https://sputniknews.com/20220708/how-chinese-military-applies-psy-op-tactics-to-counter-us-visits-to-taiwan-1097117400.html
報導轉述觀點如下：
“There are three major channels to deliver political signals to Taipei,” explained Dr. Chang Ching, a research fellow from the Taiwan-based Society for Strategic Studies and a lead military expert on the People’s Liberation Army and regional security in Taiwan. “They are spokespersons of Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, Taiwan Affairs Office and the Defense Ministry. It is relatively unusual to direct a PLA spokesman to deliver such political signals.”
Dr. Chang suggests that the PLA’s statement appears to be a new psychological operation aimed at the US and Taiwan. The military expert has drawn attention to the fact that “for any sophisticated and well organized military maneuvers, it is always necessary to have proper prior preparation.” As such, he suggested that the exercises and the US visit are not causally linked.
“The possibility for the People’s Liberation Army to conduct an improvised military exercise simply reacting to any United States political figure visiting Taiwan is extremely low,” the professor argued. “The visit of the US Senator Rick Scott to Taiwan, the premeditated military [exercises] in airspace and waters around Taiwan and the PLA routine press conference just happened on the same day. And a smart PLA spokesman grabbed the chance to exercise his psychological warfare skill and achieve the perception of warfare effects.”
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“There are many political commentators and military analysts expecting the worst-case scenario will emerge sooner or later,” said Dr. Chang, referring to the possibility of a US-China military standoff over Taiwan. “However, as long as all parties involved in such a circumstance with high uncertainties and tensions are sensible enough, the hope for peaceful resolution of the cross-strait animosities will not totally diminish though many observers will think otherwise.”
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The professor believes that as for now, the possibility of any significant Sino-US conflict is quite unlikely. While the differences between Washington and Beijing do exist, “the mutual communication channel and crisis prevention mechanism is also functional,” according to the expert.
Dr. Chang went on to claim that the Biden administration’s provocative moves with regard to Taiwan could be explained by simmering divisions within the White House.
“Many indications of internal conflicts emerged within his national security and foreign policy team members,” he said. “Some key members still keep strong ambition to exercise the salami-slicing tactics on [the] Taiwan issue for acquiring leverage towards Beijing. On the other hand, there are other members who are more willing to seek the possibility for mutual cooperation with their counterparts in Beijing and they will exercise a different set of policies towards Taipei and Beijing accordingly.”
As a result, the US administration’s strategy remains inconsistent, with Biden’s government being “an orchestra with no competent conductor to coordinate his foreign and security policies.”
However, Washington’s unbalanced approach comes at the expense of the Taiwanese inhabitants. The present administration’s negligence to the peace and stability of the region stems from the fact that “the criteria of supporting Taiwan is to serve the United States national interests, not Taiwan’s welfare,” according to the professor.
“Of course, in some cases, there are mutually beneficial solutions and arrangements in US-Taiwan relations,” he said. “Nonetheless, US interests are always the concern with higher priority for the leaders in Washington.”
報導轉述觀點如下：
向臺北傳遞政治信號的主要管道有三個，他們是北京外交部、臺灣事務辦公室和國防部的發言人。指示解放軍發言人傳遞這樣的政治信號是相對不尋常的。”
解放軍的聲明似乎是針對美國和臺灣的一種新的心理行動。軍事專家請注意，“對於任何複雜且組織良好的軍事演習，總是需要有適當的事前準備。”因此，他建議演習與美國訪問沒有因果關係。
“解放軍進行臨時軍事演習的可能性極低，只是對任何訪問臺灣的美國政治人物做出反應，”教授說。 “美國參議員裡克·斯科特（Rick Scott）訪台、有預謀的在臺灣周邊領空和海域的軍事演習，以及解放軍例行記者會，都在同一天發生，而聰明的解放軍發言人則抓住機會進行心理戰技巧，達到對戰爭效果的感知。”
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“有許多政治評論員和軍事分析家預計，最壞的情況遲早會出現，”張博士指的是美中在臺灣問題上發生軍事對峙的可能性。 “不過，只要在這種充滿不確定性和緊張局勢的情況下，各方都足夠理智，和平解決兩岸仇恨的希望不會完全消失，儘管許多觀察家會不這麼認為。”
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張競認為，就目前而言，中美發生重大衝突的可能性不大。專家表示，雖然華盛頓和北京之間確實存在分歧，但“相互溝通的管道和危機預防機制也在發揮作用”。
張競接著聲稱，拜登政府在臺灣問題上的挑釁性舉動可以用白宮內部正在醞釀的分歧來解釋。
“他的國家安全和外交政策團隊成員中出現了許多內部衝突的跡象，”他說。 “一些關鍵成員仍然有強烈的野心，在臺灣問題上採取切香腸的策略，以獲取對北京的影響力。另一方面，其他成員更願意尋求與同行合作的可能性。在北京，他們將對臺北和北京採取不同的政策。”
結果，美國政府的戰略仍然不一致，拜登政府是“一個沒有勝任指揮來協調其外交和安全政策的管弦樂隊”。
然而，華盛頓不平衡的做法是以犧牲臺灣居民為代價的。這位元教授說，本屆政府對地區和平與穩定的忽視源於“支援臺灣的標準是服務於美國的國家利益，而不是臺灣的福祉”。
“當然，在某些情況下，美台關係存在互利的解決方案和安排，”他說。 “儘管如此，美國的利益始終是華盛頓領導人更優先關注的問題。”